To assess where the war on terrorism is headed, RFE/RL
correspondent Andrew F. Tully spoke with Anthony Cordesman, a former
intelligence analyst with the U.S. departments of State and Defense who now
studies international affairs at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
RFE/RL: What is the true nature of the war on terror, and is it
possible to estimate how long it may last?
Anthony Cordesman: None of us can estimate how long this struggle will
be. It's really, primarily, an ideological struggle within Islam, particularly
within the Middle East. [The United States is] really on the periphery of it.
We are often described as a key target, but the fact is, these movements
aren't struggling to control the United States, they're struggling to control
Islam and Islamic countries, and particularly countries in the Arab world. So
for anyone to try to predict when this is going to be resolved is simply
totally unrealistic.
RFE/RL: So far, many countries, including the United States, have been
fighting a concerted and, at times, coordinated war against terrorist groups,
many of them believed to be loosely connected with Al-Qaeda. How much has this
fight achieved in five years?
Cordesman: For all of the fighting, dealing with terrorism -- what we
have accomplished in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and in supporting the
counterterrorism efforts of many of the countries in the region -- while it's
been useful, [it] has not weakened the ideological struggle or the various
movements, which are Islamist extremist movements. And we are watching broader
problems in terms of insurgency, of tensions between Sunni and Shi'ite,
potentially Iranian-led efforts [to support terrorism], and groups which go
far beyond Al-Qaeda.
RFE/RL: Therefore, do you expect a particularly long war?
Cordesman: A great deal depends on whether these movements are
self-discredited. One problem that they face is that they can play on the
tensions and problems -- the alienation within Islam and within Islamic
countries. But what they advocate has no practical ability to govern, to be
put into reality, to create effective economies. Their very extremism has
often cost them support in the countries that they want to influence most,
like Saudi Arabia.





